NCAA Tournament Upset Guide: Matchups to Watch
March is a month for upsets and Cinderella stories, as the NCAA Tournament lends itself to the type of stories that can shock the sports world. But, in every bracket, there’s a handful of matchups that lead to more upsets than others. Ahead of the first round of the 2026 tournament, here’s what to watch for.
Most Common Upsets
Unsurprisingly, the further down the seeding you get, the more often you see upsets. While only two 16 seeds have ever knocked off a No. 1 seed, the flip side is the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup, where the lower seed holds an all-time edge (83-78).
The traditional upsets, however, can be found in the middle of the bracket. Five seeds hold a 64.4% win rate against 12 seeds, while six and seven seeds hold a 61.3% win rate over 11 and 10 seeds.
So, who’s on upset watch this year?
Matchups to Watch in 2026
No. 6 UNC vs. No. 11 VCU
Spread: UNC -2.5 (-105)
Moneyline: UNC -145/VCU +125
With a likely top-four pick in June’s NBA Draft, Caleb Wilson, out for the season, the Tar Heels have skidded into the tournament with a blowout loss to rivals Duke, followed by a loss in the ACC Tournament quarterfinal at the hands of Clemson. Now, they have to face a VCU team that won 16 of its last 17 games and was hardly pushed en route to an Atlantic 10 Tournament title.
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 High Point
Spread: Wisconsin -10.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Wisconsin -500/High Point +400
The talent disparity here, between a regular Big Ten contender in the Wisconsin Badgers and the Big South’s High Point, is legitimate. But, this is upset watch – so hear us out.
The Badgers enter the tournament on the heels of a gruelling Big Ten Tournament run, with overtime needed in a three-point win over Illinois in the semifinal followed by a wild, crushing three-point loss at the hands of Michigan. The High Point Panthers, meanwhile, have won 14 straight and cruised through their conference tournament.
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida
Spread: Louisville -5.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Louisville -230/South Florida +195
Since a loss to Alabama in the middle of December, South Florida has dropped only three games -- two of which came in overtime and another by one point. En route to the American Conference Tournament title, the Bulls ripped off 11 straight wins. Louisville, on the other hand, fell to Miami in the ACC Tournament quarterfinal and has gone just 4-4 over its last eight games.
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 McNeese
Spread: Vanderbilt -11.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Vanderbilt -700/McNeese +500
Finally, the McNeese Cowboys have bona fides – having taken down a five seed last year. The Southland Tournament victors have reeled off 10 straight wins on the way to the tournament and have their opponent back on upset watch. They'll face stiffer competition than the Clemson Tigers this time around, however, with Vandy falling short in the SEC Tournament final after a dominant, 17-point win over a No. 1 seed, Florida, in the semifinal.
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Odds as of March 18, 2026.